Can MicroLEDs Catch Up and Pass OLEDs?

In the mid-2000s, OLED panel makers entered the display space targeting the LCD monopoly. By 2022, OLEDs generated $42b of the $137b in display revenue and 50% of all the smartphone shipped. OLEDs targeted the high end of the TV, smartphone, monitor and automotive markets and is moving rapidly into tablets and notebooks. In the near eye segment, OLEDoS, which has been installed in Apple’s Vision Pro is rapidly replacing LCoS and LCDs as the go to technology.

15 years later, MicroLED technology seeks to enter the display market, but their base is much wider. When OLEDs entered the market, Samsung alone carried the banner, soon to be joined by LG Display. In 2023, just about every display maker has a MicroLED initiative and powerful new participates, such as Apple, Google, Meta and Microsoft have embraced the technology.

MicroLEDs currently operate in two spheres, very large TVs and very small micro displays. They are relegated to high prices and low efficiency, which limits access to the primary markets. Even the expected 2025 release of Apple’s MicroLED based watch is expected to cost at least 3x a comparable OLED display and have comparable luminance, but with enhanced lifetime. The bourgeoning technology is researching smaller LED die sizes, larger wafers, more productive mass transfer, new error detection and repair techniques, all to reduce costs.

But the OLED industry is not standing still; is close to solving the problem of low blue efficiency and are qualifying an emitter expected to be available in 2024; new manufacturing approaches that double the luminance and triple the lifetime will be used in 2025. Panel makers are experimenting with patterning lithographically to increase pixel density, add luminance and lifetime and reduce production costs by eliminating Fine Metal Masks (FMM). By the end of the decade, a whole new material technology called plasmons could increase the EQE up to 3X the present level, making OLEDs the most efficient display technology while increasing lifetime and luminance.

This talk will provide a roadmap and rationale for how MicroLEDs will compete with LCDs and OLEDs through the end of the decade, speculating on how the advances will affect the penetration and the rate of adoption.